Fieldstate
Working model · fictional matter · click through the funnel

Radar — the matters worth your time

Ranked by retainability: not how loud a matter is, but whether there's still runway to act and whether anyone's already working it. The best lead is the big one nobody's touched yet — caught at the filing, not the headline.

Radar · ranked by retainability
LIVE
● #1 best lead · early & open
Marrow County, [ST] · Planning Commission
Cedar Hollow — 260-acre mixed-use rezoning
91
retain
54 daysuntil first hearing · staff review stage
runway open · no lobbyist on file
open the read →
2
Statewide · General Assembly
HB righthouse — impact-fee preemption
moving
77
3
Delford, [ST] · City Council
Riverfront TIF district expansion
18d
71
4
Marrow County · Board of Comm.
Landfill special-use permit
hot
64
5
Hale Township · Zoning Board
Warehouse variance cluster
12d
58
+ 40 more matters tracked across the region

Cedar Hollow tops the board not because it's the loudest fight — the landfill permit (#4) is hotter right now — but because it's early, still movable, and nobody's been retained on it yet. That's the window where a firm can still get hired. Click it to read what you'd be walking into.

Strategic Read · the qualifier

Cedar Hollow — 260-acre mixed-use rezoning

Marrow County, [ST] · Planning Commission · Case RZ-2026-041 · applicant: Kestrel Development Partners
This read is the same for everyone. It describes the matter, not a side. Flip the view — the temperature, the drivers, the movability don't change. Only your framing does.
View as
Your position
None selected. This is the raw diagnostic — identical no matter who's reading.
Everything below this line is side-neutral and computed once. Watch it stay put when you switch views.
Heathow contested is this, really?
documented
64 / 100 · rising

Organized and building, but not yet at a boil. Two neighborhood associations have filed written opposition, and the last two Planning Commission meetings drew heavier public comment than this body normally sees. One continuance already on the record. Not a spectacle yet — which is part of why it's still workable.

Driverswho is actually pushing this?
documented + inferred
Applicant
Dana Reyes, land-use counsel for Kestrel Development Partners — appeared at both hearings, filed the traffic study. A repeat filer in this county (7 prior matters).
Opposition
Tom Alcott has emerged as the face of the opposition — a Cedar Hollow resident who has spoken at every hearing since March and organized the "Keep Marrow Rural" mailing list.
Grassroots
31 residents have spoken in opposition across two hearings, concentrated in the Cedar Hollow and Route 9 corridor. Turnout is geographically tight — a neighborhood, not a countywide movement.
Named participants are public actors on the record. The 31 residents are reported as a pattern — count and geography — not resolved into an individual contact list. Identifying who's driving a matter is intelligence; turning a private citizen into a targetable record is a separate, gated step.
Runwayhow much time is left?
documented
82 / 100 · wide open

Still in staff review — 54 days to the first Planning Commission hearing, and the Board of Commissioners vote is further out still. One continuance already granted, which tends to add time, not remove it. There is room to shape this before the record hardens.

Winnabilityis the outcome still movable?
inferred · hypothesis
Movableoutcome in play

The 7-member Planning Commission has 3 seats that read as genuinely undecided on this. Recent related votes split — three of the last five density rezonings in this county went the applicant's way, two didn't, and the swing members weren't consistent across them. There is no whipped majority in either direction. With runway still open, the outcome is in play for either side.

Scored as movability — whether the result is still open — not as "who wins." A movable matter is movable by whoever engages it.
Lock-inis someone already retained here?
documented
22 / 100 · likely open

No registered lobbyist has filed on this matter. The applicant's counsel is a repeat local filer, which signals an existing relationship on their side — but the opposition shows no professional representation engaged yet. This reads as greenfield on the challenger side. Absence of a filing means "no signal yet," not a guarantee no one's working it.

Worth it?
Strong pursue
64
Heat
82
Runway
Movable
Outcome
22
Lock-in

A contested-but-not-yet-loud matter, with wide runway, a genuinely movable outcome, and no one retained on the challenger side. This is the profile of a matter a firm can still get hired on and still affect — the reason it topped the Radar. A high-heat matter with the vote next week and a lobbyist already on file would score the opposite: a public event you can't get paid on.

Everything above is the shared diagnostic. Pursuing is where it becomes your play — and where a side attaches for the first time.

The play — Cedar Hollow

The neutral read said this is worth pursuing. Now it becomes client-specific: the room mapped, the votes you need, the plays to get there. This is the first screen that knows which side you're on.

↑ the line the whole model turns on

Above this point, the Strategic Read was identical for the developer and the opposition — one diagnostic, computed once, sold to whoever asks. Below this point, it's a single client's play. The side you picked never gets written back onto the shared read.

Play built for: the Developer
Fight board · who moves a majority
4 of 7 to win
tap any seat — a definite lean means something's on the record about this matter; otherwise it reads "likely" →
committedlikelyundecided (on record)unknown
Persuade Serrano (on-record undecided — a real swing) and Boone (likely undecided). Serrano's the surer target.
Protect Okafor (committed yes) and firm up Pratt (only likely yes — get it on the record).
Soften Alcott (committed no) and Reddick — but Reddick's a likely read on affiliation alone; he could even favor this project.
Committed: 1 yes, 1 no, 1 undecided. Everything else is likely or unknown3 seats to confirm before this is a real count, and Vance to go learn cold.

Softening, done clean: to move opposition, the play builds a lookalike audience defined by attributes — Route 9 corridor homeowners, moderate turnout propensity, the concerns the record surfaced — not a target list seeded off Tom Alcott and the 31 named residents. The intelligence tells you what to model; it never becomes who to target. And if any of those people are civic-brand readers, they're reachable only through their own opt-in — never rented in.